Policy Horizons and Parliamentary Government by P. Warwick

By P. Warwick

This publication introduces a brand new speculation about the formation and survival of coalition governments in Western ecu parliamentary democracies, the coverage horizon speculation. The publication reveals help for the speculation in a big selection of proof, together with findings in accordance with a brand new survey of specialists in West ecu political platforms.

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Warwick, Policy Horizons and Parliamentary Government © Paul V. Warwick 2006 42 Policy Horizons and Parliamentary Government effect, consistent with the notion that much of the role allocated in previous research to policy distance belongs instead to the influence of horizons. Measuring policy horizons from coalition behaviour Two behaviour-based methods If policy horizons exist, how could we find them? We have seen that asking party officials to locate their party’s limits of compromise is unlikely to bear much fruit: their natural temptation would be to under-estimate, if not deny altogether, the party’s willingness to yield on its promises and commitments.

The full elaboration of the issues that motivate these calculations is best left to later chapters, but a brief synopsis of the calculations and their purposes can be provided here. The first group of variables needs little explication, since it consists of very basic types of information on each proto-coalition. These include the number of parties it contains, the percentage of parliamentary seats it controls, whether or not it is majoritarian, and whether or not it is minimal winning. As with other dichotomous variables, the latter two variables are coded ‘1’ for the presence of the trait and ‘0’ otherwise.

Nevertheless, by specifying the wire-frame method of portraying horizons (a solid-surface method is also available), it is possible to get some sense of the dimensionality of the shapes as well as to gain a better idea of how they are actually constructed. 9 Visual displays of the horizons and horizon intersections of any legislature can often be of considerable heuristic value, but the prime function of the program is to generate information on the various proto-coalitions of a legislature that can be used in the conditional logit analyses.

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